We are expecting an increase in geomagnetic activity between 19th and 21st March due to anticipated arrivals of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
The first Earth-directed CME was associated with an M-class solar flare observed at 12:15 UT on 16th March originating from a centrally located active region AR4392. The arrival of this CME is expected late on 19th March and is likely to lead to a significant enhancement in geomagnetic activity, with chances of prolonged STORM periods.
Additional CMEs associated with filament eruptions and another M-class flare occurred on 17th March. The impact of those is not expected to be as severe, however, further STORM periods are anticipated throughout 20th and 21st March.
Last but not least, on the morning of 18th March AR4392 released yet another M-class flare with associated CME. Although further imagery and analysis are required, the arrival of this CME will most likely keep geomagnetic conditions at elevated levels. The probability of geomagnetic activity is also heightened due to the time of year being close to spring equinox.
Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora between 19th and 21st March. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.
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