A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed leaving the Sun during the early hours of Tuesday the 9th of September. This CME was associated with a long duration M Class X-ray flare (M4.5) which began late on the 8th of September and peaked at 00.29UT on the 9th.
The CME appears to be primarily directed northwards, however we still anticipate sufficient interaction with the Earth's magnetic field to increase global geomagnetic activity.
We expect the CME to arrive around midnight or during the early hours of Friday the 12th of September. This is likely to enhance geomagnetic activity with probable periods of storm conditions throughout the day.
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A second CME was observed on 10th September, associated with a more powerful X1-class flare from near the centre of the Sun. This CME is expected to arrive during 12th September, possibly only shortly after the first CME.
Due to the combined effects of both CMEs there is a good chance of stormy geomagnetic conditions throughout the next few nights.
Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora, particularly in northern parts of the UK, after the arrival of the CMEs. The best chance will be Friday night with a possibility of further aurorae on Saturday.
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