At present, the Earth is in the wake of magnetic storm conditions, caused by the unexpectedly early arrival of the first of a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that have left the Sun since 11 May. Storm conditions could recur or even worsen overnight, potentially causing displays of aurora at higher latitude areas, for example the north of Scotland.
The arrival of the first of the remaining CMEs is expected late on 15 May or during 16 May. As the Earth's magnetic field is likely to be in an already perturbed state, it is expected that this arrival will result in further magnetic storm conditions on the evening of 16 May.
Two further CMEs left the Sun on the 13th are expected to arrive either late on 16 May or early on 17 May. As with the previous CMEs, these originated from a central location on the solar disc and so are likely to have a significant Earth-directed component and lead to further geomagnetic storms.
Assuming clear dark skies there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora over the next three nights, should conditions creep up into the STORM G1 or G2 categories (on the NOAA geomagnetic activity scale).
Sign-up to receive Geomagnetic Disturbance Alert emails.
Follow us on Twitter:
Follow @BGSauroraAlert for more occasional aurora alerts.
Follow @BGSspaceWeather for daily space weather forecasts.