On the 7th December a C7.3 X-ray solar flare erupted from the Sun. This emerged from active region AR12790 which is a small magnetically simple sunspot. Associated with this flare was a coronal mass ejection (CME). This was an asymmetric full-halo event indicating that some of the CME will be Earth-directed. Modelling estimates an arrival late on the 9th December.
In addition, high-speed solar wind from a few small coronal holes is expected to elevate the solar wind speed which may interact with the CME's progress.
In response to the arrival of the CME and high-speed solar wind, geomagnetic activity is expected to become enhanced with activity up to a STORM G1 or even STORM G2 possible. The maximum activity level will depend on the configuration of the solar wind's magnetic field on arrival at Earth.
Assuming clear dark skies, and that the geomagnetic field is suitably disturbed, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora. In the UK, those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland may have the best opportunities.
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