A waning sunspot, AR12781, currently at the southwestern region of the solar disk erupted a long duration C1.6 X-ray solar flare on the 28th September. This sunspot was also responsible for two M-class solar flares five days earlier. Associated with the low-level C-class flare was a coronal mass ejection (CME). This was an asymmetric partial-halo event. Some of the CME is Earth-directed and modelling estimates predict an arrival during the latter half of the 30th September.
In response to the arrival of the CME, geomagnetic activity is expected to become enhanced. Activity up to a STORM G1 or even STORM G2 level is possible on arrival at Earth depending on the configuration of the magnetic field embedded in the CME.
Assuming clear dark skies, and that the geomagnetic field is suitably disturbed, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora. In the UK, those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland may have the best opportunities.
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