On 9th October an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was launched from the Sun. This originated from a centrally located active region (AR12882) and was associated with an M1.6 X-ray solar flare. Coronagraph imagery shows a full-halo CME indicating that this is travelling directly toward Earth.
The shock from the CME is expected to arrive on the 11th (or early on 12th Oct). The resulting geomagnetic storm is likely to raise geomagnetic activity to STORM G1 or STORM G2 levels. If the configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field is favourable (i.e. a southward pointing field) there is a chance of activity up to STORM G3.
In addition, there is a coronal hole currently in an Earth facing position. This centrally located coronal hole will produce a high-speed solar wind stream that is predicted to arrive at Earth from the 12th Oct. This could prolong activity over the next few days after the initial storm impact, however this is expected to be at a more moderate ACTIVE level.
Assuming clear dark skies, and that the geomagnetic field is suitably disturbed, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora. In the UK, those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland may have the best opportunities.
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