Several Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) left the Sun on 27th and 28th November and are expected to increase geomagnetic activity during 30th Nov and 1st Dec.
Three CMEs lifted off the Sun on 27th Nov. The first at around 05:35 UT was mostly directed to the south, but the northern edge is likely to impact the Earth during the morning of 30th Nov. A slow partial halo CME was then observed in the evening at around 18:40 and was followed a few hours later by a faster CME which was directed mostly northeast. These CMEs are likely to arrive late on 30th Nov, and the combination of all three CMEs could lead to an increase in activity on Thursday evening.
On 28th Nov there was an M9.8 class solar flare from close to the centre of the Sun, which had an associated full halo CME. This CME is expected to arrive early on 1st Dec and could lead to a significant increase in geomagnetic activity, particularly as the geomagnetic field is likely to already be in a disturbed state following the previous CMEs.
Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora on 30th Nov and 1st Dec. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather and timing of the CME arrivals is favourable.
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