Geomagnetic storm forecast - 9^th May 2024

What Has Happened?

 

Three Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed on the 8^th May 2024, originating from a large, centrally located active region. Due to their speed and relatively quick succession, all CMEs are expected to combine into one powerful impact.

The arrival of this CME combination is anticipated late in the evening of the 10^th May or early on the 11^th May, leading to a significant increase in geomagnetic activity. Prolonged STORM periods are anticipated on the 10^th and 11^th May, potentially reaching STORM G3 levels.

Assuming clear, dark skies, there is a chance of seeing the aurora on the 10^th-11^th May. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have a better chance if the weather is favourable.

 

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Glossary

BGS

The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection

The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Sunspot/Active Region

A region of intense magnetic field in the Sun's visible outer atmosphere often associated with flares and CMEs.