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Geomagnetic storm forecast - 9th October 2024

What Has Happened?

The X-class solar flare seen on the central disc on 9th October 2024. Credit: Solar Dynamic Observatory.

The full-halo coronal mass ejection observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph (LASCO) imagery. Credit: NASA & ESA.

 

We are expecting an increase in geomagnetic activity over the next three days, with a possibility that conditions may reach up to STORM G4 on 11th Oct.

Two coronal mass ejections (CME) travelling southwest of the Earth-facing solar disc were observed on 7th OCT. Both CMEs may glance past the Earth late on 10th Oct or early on 11th Oct and they could enhance geomagnetic activity up to STORM levels.

A full-halo CME left the Sun at approximately 02:30 UT on 09th Oct. It was associated with an X1.8-class solar flare originating from an Earth-facing active region close to the centre of the Sun. This fast-moving CME may arrive as early as the evening of the 10th Oct, or by the early hours of the 11th. It is possible for this CME to combine with the previous CMEs and lead to a significant enhancement in geomagnetic activity during the night of 10th and throughout 11th Oct. STORM periods are likely, with a possibility of reaching STORM G4 on the NOAA Geomagnetic storm scales.

Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora during 10-11th Oct. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

 

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Glossary

BGS
The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection
The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Solar Flare
Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.